John Homenuk

Hurricane Isaias entering the Bahamas, will impact US East Coast next week

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The National Hurricane Center issued a special advisory late Thursday night to announce that Isaias has strengthened into a hurricane. Currently, maximum sustained winds are at 75mph miles per hour. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles away from the center and tropical storm force winds extend further outward up to 205 miles. Isaias will continue moving northwest into the open waters of the Bahamas on Friday.

Isaias will eventually turn northward towards the Southeast US coast early next week. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center suggests the storm will make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane along the Southeast US coast. Then the storm will track northwards towards the Mid Atlantic and Northeast coasts, but weakening to a tropical storm due to increasing southwesterly shear.

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John Homenuk

Tropical Storm Isaias forms, could impact Florida this weekend

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Tropical Storm Isaias formed on Wednesday evening, and will continue a track through the Caribbean over the next few days. The system could eventually impact parts of Florida this weekend. This is the earliest than an ‘I’-named storm, or 9th-named storm, has formed. Records date back to 1851.

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John Homenuk

PTC9 moves into Caribbean, tropical rains possible in NYC next week

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (PTC9) has moved into the Caribbean today. The storm is expected to gradually strengthen into a Tropical Storm over the next 24-48 hours. Tropical moisture will also move up the East Coast next week, leading to the potential for heavy rainfall.

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John Homenuk

NYC Forecast: Warm and humid, PTC9 forms in Atlantic

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Warmth and humidity will persist in the NYC Area for the next few days, with temperatures in the upper 80’s and low 90’s. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine formed in the Atlantic today, and will move towards the Caribbean this weekend.

QuickCast

This evening: A few showers and storms will move through the area, but coverage will remain low. Conditions are expected to improve this evening, with temporarily lower humidity. Expect lows in the 70’s.

Wednesday (7/29): Warm weather will continue, with light southwest winds. High temperatures will reach into the lower 90’s once again. No weather hazards are anticipated.

Thursday (7/30): Partly cloudy conditions will persist, with high temperatures near 90. Expect the chance for a few isolated storms, but weather hazards should be limited overall.

Forecast Discussion

A few showers and storms are moving through the region this evening, and will clear the NYC Area by early evening. Additional storms should develop across Southern and Central NJ later tonight, before the frontal boundary clears the coast. Expect improving conditions everywhere by morning. Partly cloudy and warm conditions will continue on Wednesday, with highs in the lower 90’s.

Multi-model ensembles show active conditions returning to the area next week.

The general trend through the weekend will be continued warmth, but slightly less oppressive conditions in terms of actual heat. Temperatures will reach the upper 80’s to near 90 each day, which is at least a few degrees lower than what we have been experiencing. Humidity will briefly decrease, but then rise again as we move towards Saturday and Sunday.

By next week, the chance for unsettled weather will return. Tropical moisture will begin surging northwards along the East Coast, and a disturbance will slowly approach the region from the Central US. Expect conditions to trend wetter and more unsettled by the middle of next week.

PTC9 Forms, Could Impact US East Coast

Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Nine formed earlier today, designated by the National Hurricane Center. This system will move generally westwards over the next few days, on a path towards the Caribbean, while strengthening gradually. The system is forecast to strengthen into a Tropical Storm over the next 24-48 hours. If it does reach tropical storm strength, it will be named Isaias.

The eventual fate of the system, in terms of track and intensity, remains uncertain. The system is still in the process of organizing a center of circulation, and is battling the presence of some dry air from the Saharan Air Layer. This drier, often dust-filled air suppresses the development of thunderstorms within tropical cyclones and can lead to weaker systems overall.

Making matters worse is the fact that the storm will eventually approach the Caribbean Islands, possibly nearing a landfall in Hispaniola or surrounding islands. The rugged terrain of the islands in these areas has been known to weaken tropical cyclones in the past. Whether or not the system impacts these areas will obviously have a major impact on its evolution.

One thing forecast models have bene consistent on is that the system will eventually approach the US East Coast. The systems intensity, and the path it takes to get towards the United States remains to be seen. The National Hurricane Center currently forecasts a tropical storm to be approaching Florida by Saturday.