On Florence, and her uncertain but concerning future
“What would normally happen in this scenario?” Most meteorologists would be uncomfortable telling you how many times we utter this phrase in our own heads, but the truth is that it happens quite often. In all honesty, this method usually serves as a bit of a reality check; what kind of analog years can we use to compare this upcoming storm to, and how did similar scenarios evolve in the past? This forecasting process isn’t fool proof, but it usually works out – properly weighting past events into forecasts helps produce a more reasonable expectation.
But there are times when it simply doesn’t apply – where model guidance shows a highly unusual pattern ahead, so much so that past events will do no good to help us understand what will evolve. Hurricane Florence may very well be a shining example of just that.