John Homenuk

Severe thunderstorms possible again on Wednesday

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Another disturbance is set to move through the Northeast states on Wednesday, and it will bring showers and thunderstorms with it. With instability and wind shear in place, thunderstorms will turn severe during the afternoon hours. While coverage will be scattered, these storms will produce a myriad of weather hazards. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a large majority of the area in “Slight Risk” for severe weather.

Setup for severe weather remains complicated

The atmospheric setup that may produce severe weather remains very complicated. While a low pressure system develops, clouds and showers will move through the Northeast states on Wednesday morning. This creates uncertainty in regards to how unstable the atmosphere will get. In addition, model guidance struggles with these intricate systems – creating a lower confidence forecast.

Current expectations are that storms will form during the early afternoon in the Interior, and begin moving eastward. The most likely area for this activity is Northern PA, Southeast NY, and Western New England. Additional thunderstorms will develop on the southern end of this activity in parts of New Jersey and New York. These storms will all shift eastward toward the coast by late afternoon and early evening.

Here are the highlights, focused on the NYC Metro and surrounding areas:

  • Showers and storms are likely on Wednesday, first in the morning. These won’t be severe but will be capable of producing periodic heavy rainfall.
  • The atmosphere will become more unstable during the afternoon. Showers and storms will develop again and move through parts of PA, NJ, NY, CT and MA. The worst of this storm complex may miss the NYC Metro to the north.
  • Additional storms will develop on the southern edge of – and to the south of – the aforementioned storm complex in NJ and NY. These will be capable of producing small hail, strong winds, and dangerous lightning.
  • A localized threat for a few tornadoes may exist across the Lower Hudson and Champlain Valley, but this risk will be conditional and its intensity likely not determined until morning.
  • Conditions improve by the time we move into the evening hours and overnight into Thursday, with lower humidity and calmer weather.

Stay tuned over the next several hours for the latest from our forecasting team. Remember to start using #nycstorm to help aggregate reports and photos of storm activity.

John Homenuk

Enhanced Risk of severe weather on Tuesday in PA, NJ

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The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of PA and NJ in an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. The main threat with strong and severe thunderstorms is expected to be damaging winds, but small hail and tornadoes are also possible. Heavy rain is expected throughout the area.

The threat for strong and severe thunderstorms will be driven by the development of a low pressure system over Pennsylvania. This same low pressure system will then move eastward off the coast. Near and southeast of the low pressure, instability will increase. The combination of instability and ample wind shear will allow storms to form and organize.

The track of the low pressure system will obviously be important. To the north of it, cooler and rainier weather is expected. To the south of it, near more appreciable instability, storms will turn strong and severe on Tuesday afternoon. As of this afternoon, forecast model guidance is in good agreement that the low pressure will track just southwest of NYC.

This suggests that areas like Southeast PA and Central/Southern NJ are at the greatest risk for severe weather, including strong winds and isolated tornadoes. Heavy rain is possible throughout the area.

Here are the highlights over the next few days:

  • Calm weather will persist through the evening today. Temperatures will remain warm and clouds will increase during the evening.
  • Unsettled weather is likely on Tuesday. In NYC, the expectation is that clouds and rain will limit severe weather potential. 
  • Further south in Southeast PA and NJ, strong and severe storms are expected. These will be capable of producing strong winds, flooding and tornadoes. 
  • The weather improves once again after this system passes Tuesday evening.
  •  Calm weather will persist through the end of the week.

As always, stay tuned for more details and alerts as we move closer to Tuesday.

Miguel Pierre

Beautiful warm weather overall this weekend, scattered storms possible late Sunday and Monday

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Happy Saturday! High pressure will continue to provide partly to mostly sunny skies today. Temperatures will be a little cooler than on Friday. But it will still be warm this afternoon with highs reaching the lower to middle 70s throughout much of the New Jersey and New York City area. Winds will be mostly light out the north and west during the day. This will allow for sea-breezes to develop this afternoon, which may keep Long Island and shore areas from rising out of the upper 60s. But overall it will be a beautiful day for the entire region.

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John Homenuk

Severe thunderstorms likely in the Northeast on Tuesday

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Good evening! After beautiful second half of the day in the Northeast states on Monday, the atmosphere has already begun to become more unstable as southwesterly winds begin to usher in a warmer and more unstable airmass. Forecast models are in good agreement that on Tuesday, a shortwave disturbance traversing the Northeast states will interact with an unstable airmass and trigger the development of severe thunderstorms. These storms will have the potential to become severe, and given the wind shear in place the threat for strong winds could be widespread.

Below, we have detailed the threat in a Severe Weather Briefing, which includes our own forecast maps and ideas as well as expected risks, timing, and preparation steps. We remind you that official forecasts for severe thunderstorms come from the Storm Prediction Center. Check out our briefing below for the very latest information on the threat for severe weather on Tuesday.

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