John Homenuk

Winter Storm Warnings issued as snowstorm approaches

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The National Weather Service issued Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories for the entire area on Monday evening, in advance of a light to moderate snowstorm which is expected to impact the area on Tuesday. The Winter Storm Warnings, in effect through 6pm on Tuesday evening, cover much of Southwestern and Central New Jersey as well as the major cities of Philadelphia and Trenton. Elsewhere, Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the rest of New Jersey, New York City, Southwest Connecticut and Southeast New York. The advisories currently do not include Eastern Long Island or interior New York State.

The watches and advisories were issued in advance of a forecast snowstorm, which will approach the area on Tuesday. A mid level disturbance sliding eastward, and a frontal boundary providing the focal point for enhanced lift and development of precipitation, will set the stage for the event. A band of moderate to heavy snow is forecast to develop by late Tuesday morning, but forecast models have been struggling with the exact placement of the band. Regardless of that bands eventual position, 1-3″ of snow seems increasingly likely throughout the majority of the region. But the heavy snow band, and enhanced forcing within it, provides extra intrigue for potential higher amounts. We break down Tuesday snowfall event with timing, snowfall totals, and hazards information below.

Storm total snowfall forecast (left) and NWS Watches, Warnings and Advisories (right).

Storm total snowfall forecast (left) and NWS Watches, Warnings and Advisories (right).

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Doug Simonian

A technical look at Tuesday’s snow

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John Homenuk

Wintry weather continues; More snowfall Tuesday

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A wintry mess was the most fitting way to describe the morning commute on Monday as snow, sleet, and freezing rain provided a myriad of issues with travel. Traffic, accidents, and delays on the area roads and with local mass transit likely lead to a headache for most — if you were able to get in to work or class without an issue, consider yourself lucky. The ice and wintry precipitation caused closures of schools and businesses over the interior, but coastal and urban locations including the NYC Metro were much warmer by morning — allowing for a more wet commute than white.

The disturbance moving through the area will shift northeastward on Monday, ending with scattered showers throughout the area. Colder air will begin to filter in rapidly behind the system on Monday Night. As an early warning, you’ll want to be extra careful on the evening commute and during any overnight travel as well. The falling temperatures could lead to re-freezing of any water on roadways and other surfaces.

But our problems don’t end there. Forecast models have come into better agreement on another disturbance which will shift northeast through the area on Tuesday. Much colder air will have moved into the area both aloft and at the surface, so this storm system looks to provide less difficulties in forecasting precipitation type: Mainly snow. Bands of snow will develop by late morning into afternoon on Tuesday, accumulating initially across the interior ( a little slower to do so on the coast and in the city with warmer ground and surfaces).

Storm Total Snowfall forecast through Tuesday evening. Please note that forecasts are subject to change prior to the event.

Storm Total Snowfall forecast through Tuesday evening. Please note that forecasts are subject to change prior to the event.

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John Homenuk

PM Update: Wintry weather continues

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Several inches of snow fell earlier today across parts of Southeast Pennsylvania, into Southern and Central New Jersey as a mid level disturbance triggered precipitation — which fell along a gradient between warm air advection to the south, and cold and dry air to the north. The combination lead to an enhanced frontogenesis event, with bands of heavy snow lasting several hours during the day on Sunday. Snowfall totals within warning criteria (over 6″) fell in parts of Delaware, Pennsylvania and New Jersey by the time the snow let up. Farther north, closer to Northern New Jersey and New York City, the drier air won the battle. A half inch or so of snowfall fell before precipitation entered a lull on Sunday evening.

Which is where we pick up — with a break in precipitation occurring throughout the area this Sunday evening. Warm air advection, however, is ready to come back for more — with additional precipitation expected to develop by later tonight into Monday morning. As the warm air advection helps to drive precipitation farther north, it will also warm the mid levels of the atmosphere — allowing for a gradual changeover in precipitation type throughout the area. Winds turning from northeast to southeast by later tonight will also warm the surface, especially along the coast. Although another period of snow is likely, it should be somewhat brief in the city and near the shore before transitioning to sleet and plain rain. Farther inland, a period of frozen precipitation is expected as well before a changeover. It is the far northern suburbs which may still experience a more prolonged period of snow and sleet — with the potential for 1-3″ of snow and sleet by Monday morning.

NAM model showing mixed precipitation accumulations through Monday morning -- freezing rain, sleet, snow and rain.

NAM model showing mixed precipitation accumulations through Monday morning — freezing rain, sleet, snow and rain.

The National Weather Service continues Winter Weather Advisories throughout much of the area through 3:00am (New York City and coastal areas) and 6:00 am (Interior suburbs of New Jersey and New York). Travel this evening will be slick, with areas of ice and snow on all roads. This will be less of an issue near the coast and in the 5 Boros, especially with the lull in precipitation allowing for crews to treat the roads. Inland, colder temperatures and another period of wintry precipitation suggest that the morning commute may be messy.

National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories valid from Sunday Night into Monday morning

National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories valid from Sunday Night into Monday morning

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