Doug Simonian

First Accumulating Snow of the Season Becoming Likely for the East Coast

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Good afternoon! In the world of weather, there has been a lot of model mayhem regarding a big shift in the data further northwest with a coastal storm, which is leading to the idea of accumulating snow across much of the Eastern US on Saturday. We believe that these ideas have a lot of merit, and in this article we are going to explain why, as well as overview some of our expectations.

In the macro sense, it’s not a complicated setup. We have a large ridge in the West, and a corresponding deep trough in the East, we have disturbances sliding down the ridge and entering the trough, and we also have a relatively stalled frontal boundary off the coast, providing a strong temperature gradient for a storm to ride, while also providing enough ridging in the Atlantic to keep the storm from sliding out to sea.

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John Homenuk

Strong storm expected in the Northeast this weekend

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Amidst an anomalous pattern, which features a large ridge in the Western United States and a changeable Pacific Ocean wave progression, sensible weather changes have been observed across the Continental United States. Nowhere is this more apparent this morning than Minnesota, where snow is on the ground across much of the Central and Northern parts of the State after a very warm October. Nationally, though, the anomalous warmth has gone on a hiatus as well, as the Western USA ridge acts to promote cooler air surging southward.

These anomalous patterns on either of our coasts can often preclude multiple storm threats, including the potential for larger ones, and this pattern will be no different. After a handful of storm systems in the Central US and Great Lakes will come a larger, more significant storm threat later this weekend in the Northeast States. A deep trough is expected to dig into the Mississippi River Valley this weekend, interacting with energy over the Southeastern United States.

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Miguel Pierre

Premium: Heavy Rainfall, T-Storms, Localized Flooding Possible by Tonight

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Good morning and happy Monday! Mostly cloudy skies are expected today, as a storm system from the southwest begins impacting the parts of Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. Temperatures will likely not rise much out of the lower to middle  70s.  Showers will spread northward towards the Northeast states later this morning and afternoon — and some could produce some briefly heavy downpours. Chances for steadier, heavier rainfall and some thunderstorms will increase as the dynamics increase later today.

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Miguel Pierre

Storms may return late Thursday into Friday

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Enjoy the pleasant, warm weather over the next 24 hours: Unsettled weather is likely to return over the days that follow as  disturbances begin moving into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic from the west on Thursday. There’s now an increasing likelihood of a period of heavy rainfall with some thunderstorms in the parts of the region later Thursday night into Friday morning.

Some mid-level warm air advection and sheared vorticity will cause cloud cover to increase throughout the Northeast tomorrow. A few showers are possible over the interior during the afternoon or evening, though high pressure offshore will likely provide enough subsidence (sinking air) to keep most of the region dry. Temperatures tomorrow will reach the mid to upper 70s near the coast and lower 80s inland, with more cloud cover along the coast and an onshore flow.

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