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Forecast: New week starts cool, ends warm

Our Hurricane Sandy Anniversary Archive is now available.

The new work week began with another in a series of colder than normal mornings, as low temperatures fell into the upper 20s and lower 30s across much of the interior on Monday morning. The city and urban areas remained a bit warmer, although still chilly, with lows dropping near 40 degrees. Monday will turn out to be a pleasant autumn day, as temperatures warm into the upper 50’s to lower 60’s by afternoon. A light southwest breeze will make it feel plenty comfortable, and less chilly than the past several days which featured windier and cooler conditions.

Northeast US Surface Analysis and observations from the morning of October 28, 2013 showing high pressure in control and a cold front approaching.

Northeast US Surface Analysis and observations from the morning of October 28, 2013 showing high pressure in control and a cold front approaching.

A cold front dropping southward through New England, however, will provide a reinforcing shot of cooler air by later Monday. Associated with a disturbance over Southeast Canada, the front isn’t expected to feature any precipitation. The wind shift, however, will be noticeable. By Tuesday, winds will have swung around once again behind the front, and will be blowing out of the north. High temperatures will once again struggle into the lower to middle 50’s — making Monday seem like a much warmer day in comparison.

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Cloudy, drizzly and unsettled through weeks end

The combination of a weak coastal system, meandering off the Mid Atlantic coast, and multiple mid level disturbances moving through the Northeast US will result in generally unpleasant weather from Wednesday through the end of the week. The coastal system is weak but brings moisture and an onshore flow, as the decaying mid level vorticity slowly retrogrades towards the coast on Wednesday. Low clouds and drizzle are possible, despite the lack of any steady rain, especially near the coasts.

Mid level disturbances shifting northeast from the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through the Great Lakes and Northeast will bring more unsettled weather through the end of the week — signaling the beginnings of a more active pattern. The weekend is expected to feature improving conditions once the frontal system eventually moves off the coast.

High resolution models showing increasing Precipitable Water values by later Wednesday evening.

High resolution models showing increasing Precipitable Water values by later Wednesday evening.

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Forecast: Unsettled, cooler pattern not far away

Despite the fact that pleasant weather has essentially dominated late summer and Autumn thus far, the pattern of late has trended a bit more unsettled. This is fairly typical for this time of year, as the first signs of wavelength changes are beginning to be seen in the atmospheric pattern and jet stream. However, a more dramatic pattern change is being forecast by most models in the medium range — with noticeable wave amplification throughout the Northern Hemisphere. In the short term, unsettled weather will begin to impact the area as early as Wednesday with a weak system meandering offshore beginning to back towards a coast slightly. Another frontal system back to our west will eventually approach and cross the area around mid-week, bringing in the first of several shots of cooler air.

NAM model showing multiple disturbances in the mid levels (500mb) of the atmosphere later this week.

NAM model showing multiple disturbances in the mid levels (500mb) of the atmosphere later this week.

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Update: Cloudy and drizzly now, heavier rains tonight

After a brief bout of rain this morning, most of the area is currently in a dry-slot. Lots of dry air has filtered into the region thanks to a high pressure system to the north. And considering the storm is still well to the south of the area, there is not enough lift in the atmosphere at our latitude to consistently supply rain. This is why our forecast called for the heaviest rain to be tonight and tomorrow morning, rather than today.

 

The water vapor imagery shows dry air filtering into our storm system, but lots of cold cloud tops to the east that will eventually head our way.

The water vapor imagery shows dry air filtering into our storm system, but lots of cold cloud tops to the east that will eventually head our way.

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