Posts

John Homenuk

Periods of heavy rain expected today

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An unsettled weather pattern, which has settled into the area the second half of Labor Day Weekend, will rear its ugly head today as widespread showers and thunderstorms develop throughout the area. Areas of heavy rain have already developed early this afternoon, both over parts of New York City and also over Western and Central New Jersey. Limited instability should muddle what otherwise could have been a marginal setup for severe thunderstorms, but weak shear and lots of moisture suggest the potential for slow moving thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain and leading to flash flooding.

Water Vapor Satellite imagery from the afternoon of September 2nd, 2013 showing moisture streaming into the area ahead of a cold front.

Water Vapor Satellite imagery from the afternoon of September 2nd, 2013 showing moisture streaming into the area ahead of a cold front.

The showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through Monday evening, and may even linger into Tuesday morning across parts of the area — especially over Connecticut and on the Eastern end of Long Island. A more stable, cooler and less humid weather pattern is on the way by the middle of next week, but unfortunately Labor Day will have to be sacrificed in the process. Stay tuned for further updates including potential watches, warnings and advisories on the heavy rain and flooding potential.

John Homenuk

Labor Day weekend begins with sun

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Low clouds and fog burned off and broke up this morning, and the sun made an appearance shortly after noon in New York City. A weak disturbance sliding east/southeast off the coasts of New Jersey and Long Island was the culprit for the morning clouds, but the backdoor cold front which hampered Thursdays weather has weakened and washed out this afternoon. Winds will flip from east-northeast to west-southwest, helping to keep temperatures a bit on the warmer side today especially in areas that get more sun. Highs in the mid 80’s look to be a common theme. Pleasant weather is expected through tonight, with lows in the 60’s to lower 70’s.

Visible satellite imagery and regional observations from the afternoon of August 30th, 2013.

Visible satellite imagery and regional observations from the afternoon of August 30th, 2013.

The Labor Day Weekend forecast is not as straight forward, however, as multiple perturbations in the mid level flow will cause unsettled weather in the area beginning on Saturday. High temperatures will reach into the mid to upper 80’s on both Saturday and Sunday, but thunderstorms look to become more likely as the weekend draws on. The storms should be relegated to the western suburbs on Saturday, but may become more widespread on Sunday. We aren’t looking at a threat for widespread heavy rain, but any storm could certainly put a hamper on outdoor activities.

A frontal system comes through on Monday with a low pressure passing north of the area — with showers and storms likely from Sunday night into Monday. As it stands now, Saturday looks like the winner of the weekend..with warm temperatures and good beach weather, despite the chance of scattered storms. Stay tuned for more details and have a wonderful Friday!

John Homenuk

PM Update: Clouds break, unsettled trend continues

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Mostly cloudy skies, including the presence of drizzle and some fog, hampered the forecast for the majority of Thursday. Although temperatures still reached into the 70’s and near 80 with humidity on the rise, the sun was absent — a poor beach day for those who are still clinging to the last few available this summer. The humidity and mugginess in the air may have left Thursday feeling somewhat uncomfortable. A weak disturbance will pass through the area overnight tonight, and with a backdoor cold front in the area a few storms are possible over the far interior suburbs and Northwest PA. Generally, however, dry conditions are expected through the majority of the area this evening. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the 60’s throughout most of the area tonight.

Water Vapor satellite imagery and observations from 6pm on 8/29/13

Water Vapor satellite imagery and observations from 6pm on 8/29/13

The backdoor front will wash out a bit by Friday, and with the easterly flow (which caused the clouds/fog on Thursday) weakening and backing to a south-westerly flow, we are expecting a warmer day with more sun. Highs should top out in the lower 80’s in most areas. The weekend looks to remain unsettled, with a chance of storms each day — fairly difficult to pinpoint, but no threats of widespread heavy rain. Saturday looks like the winner of the weekend, with highs in the 80’s and a chance of storms mainly relegated to the western suburbs. Storm chances increase both Sunday and Monday before a cold front crosses the area.

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PM Update: Overnight showers/storms likely

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Pleasant weather, which had settled into the area over the last few days, will give way to more clouds this evening. A mix of sun and clouds had been the story today, but it had remained mostly dry throughout the area despite some widely scattered showers. However, a disturbance to our north — dropping south and east along the periphery of a mid level heat ridge over the Central US — has sparked an area of showers and thunderstorms over New York State and Northwest Pennsylvania.

Forecast models are at odds with the overnight storms and their impact on the forecast area. A low pressure system is forecast to develop along a weak frontal zone over New England by later this evening, which adds confidence to the continued southeastward motion of the showers and storms over New York State. That being said, some weakening is likely as instability is much less over New Jersey and Southeast New York than it is currently over New York State. This lends confidence to the fact that showers will impact the area later tonight, but strong/severe thunderstorms look unlikely.

The Storm Prediction Center maintains a 5% risk for severe weather (less than a Slight Risk), for the potential of an isolated strong wind gust in any thunderstorm. Bring an umbrella if you’re headed out tonight, especially after the evening commute.

Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy, becoming mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Chance of precipitation 70%. Low temperatures in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. The evening commute should remain dry, but overnight looks wet.

Tuesday: Scattered showers early, becoming partly cloudy with a high in the middle 80’s. West winds around 5 miles per hour. The wet weather early on will give way to rapidly warming conditions. Depending on the amount of sun, some areas could approach 90 degrees.