December 2013 - Page 3 of 8 - New York Metro Weather

Warmup continues, peaks Sunday

December 19, 2013/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

Forecast models continue to come into better agreement on the extent of the warmth reaching our area on Sunday, and it seems to be fairly anomalous and will certainly feel dramatically different from what we have experienced over the past several days and weeks. High temperatures are forecast to surge into the 60’s throughout much of the area by late this weekend, as a major storm system drives northward through the Central United States and into the Great Lakes. A warm front will push north of the area during the weekend (providing unsettled weather) but the main story will come after its passage, as southerly winds will bring in very warm air.

The trend towards warmth begins today, as high temperatures will push into the lower 40’s in many locations. For some, especially over the interior, it is the first day above freezing in over a week. But, moreso, Thursday will serve as the first sign of airmass modification, which has not been commonplace in our area recently as arctic intrusions have been relentless. Despite the cold air remaining just to our north over Canada (just because we’re warming up, doesn’t mean it’s depleted) the extent of warm air by this weekend will become quite impressive.

NAM model showing a storm system over the Great Lakes this weekend, with a warm front over New England and very warm air over our area (850mb temperatures 15+ C).

Wintry pattern set to break as big warmup awaits

December 18, 2013/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

It has been a wintry scene throughout the area over the past few weeks. In fact, many areas have exceeded snowfall averages for the first half or winter or more — and calendar winter hasn’t even technically begun yet! Snow fell on four separate occasions throughout the area, with everyone getting a taste of winter. Snow events blanketed Central and Southern New Jersey first, then favored the interior areas, and a clipper as recently as Tuesday brought snow to everyone (albeit light). But the cold and wintry pattern will take a hiatus over the next several days, as a changing pattern brings a big trough into the West and Central United States and allows the Southeast Ridge to flex its muscles.

Forecast models are in good agreement on a warming trend in temperatures each day this week, as the snowcover which currently exists throughout the region will take more of a hit with each passing day and each day of increasing high temperatures. The grand finale will come this weekend, when a surface low is forecast to drive well northwest of the region — and bring strong southerly winds to the area on the south side of a developing warm front. Although some showers, clouds and fog are also likely — these things come with the territory of warmer air this time of year — temperatures are likely to warm into the 60’s on Sunday. There may be potential for record warmth in some areas.

European model showing maximum temperatures on Sunday afternoon, with highs in the upper 60’s throughout the region.

Live Blog: 12/17/13 Clipper

December 17, 2013/0 Comments/by Doug Simonian

3:00pm Update: Precipitation which had changed over to sleet and freezing rain in many areas along the coast and near the city, as a result of a warm layer aloft, will slowly change back to snow from W to E over the next hour. Regional mesoscale analysis shows the potential for one last band of moderate to heavy precipitation as a result of increased lift from the developing coastal system and enhanced support aloft.

This band will shift eastward during the evening commute. We are expected a slippery and wintry commute in many areas, so plan extra time and expect delays.

9:00am Update: Snow has become a bit more spotty in nature throughout the area, so the roads are wet in the city and have likely been treated across the interior. Things are expected to pick up again this afternoon with periods of snow developing and moving northeast from the Mid-Atlantic states into New Jersey and New York..eventually northeastward into Connecticut and Southern New England. Forecast models have been wildly inconsistent with potential development of another coastal low pressure system later this afternoon..so as mentioned a few hours ago, confidence in that is rather low.

That said, seems to be a nowcasting-type situation developing and we’ll be closely monitoring the precipitation, pressure and height trends throughout the day. As of now our forecast remains unchanged with 1-2″ the general consensus throughout the area. All products (brief, discussion, member products) have been updated with the morning package. -JH

HRRR model storm total snowfall forecast through evening on Tuesday.

Cold and dry start to the week, more snow follows

December 16, 2013/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

A bitterly cold start to the morning on Monday will serve as a reminder that winter is off to an early start, as if the multiple snow events in the past two weeks weren’t enough. Cold weather is expected to continue throughout the day on Monday as an arctic airmass is settled into much of the Northeast US and New England. High temperatures in the upper 20’s are expected throughout the area on Monday, but it will end up feeling a whole bunch colder than that, thanks to blustery west winds. Real feel temperatures could remain in the teens throughout much of the interior, and maybe even New York City. It will feel a bit warmer close to the immediate coast.

The main story in the upcoming weather period, however, is the clipper system which is expected to deliver another shot of light snow to the area on Tuesday. A surface low associated with a mid and upper level disturbance is forecas to track just south of our area on Monday Night through Tuesday morning. Despite the progressive nature of the pattern, this could cause the development of a weak surface low south of Long Island. And such a development would all but certainly aid in the development of precipitation — likely falling in the form of snow across much of the area — early on Tuesday morning through the afternoon. You can view our latest snowfall forecast here.

NAM model showing a period of moderate snow throughout the area on Tuesday.

Archive for month: December, 2013