After some dismal weather this past weekend, the tri-state area enjoyed of lots of sunshine this morning with temperatures in the middle or upper 60s and low humidity. An upper-level trough to the north is causing more clouds to mix with sunshine this afternoon. A few isolated showers could pop late this afternoon and evening, well north and west of New York City. Most of the area will stay dry this afternoon. Temperatures will reach in the middle to upper 70s with light southwest winds. Tonight, skies should become mostly clear with low temperatures in the lower 60s and 50s inland.
A warm front will begin moving through region tomorrow and tomorrow night. Ahead of it, light winds will turn more out of south-southeast off the cooler Atlantic waters. However, partial sunshine and 850mb temperatures around 14 degrees celsius during the afternoon, will help temperatures reach the upper 70s to lower 80s for much of the area. Near the New Jersey shore and the south shores of Long Island and Connecticut, high temperatures will be slightly cooler– likely in the middle 70s. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible well north and west of New York City, late in the afternoon. But scattered showers and thunderstorms are more likely later tomorrow night for the rest of us. Model guidance shows low instability and high precipitable water values, or atmospheric moisture co tent. Any thunderstorm will capable of producing heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning. Despite this, we aren’t anticipating organized severe weather or hazards at this time.