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Sunday Overview: Warmth today followed by showers and possible t-storms this evening

Today has gotten off to beautiful, warm start for this time of year!  A weak cold front slowly moving through the region is cause some clouds to mix with sunshine this morning. But dry conditions remain as lift is currently too weak this front. Some sunshine with more west-southwest winds, will help temperatures rise into the lower or middle 70s over much of region this afternoon. Which around 10 degrees warmer than normal for the end of October.

However, a wave of low pressure developing along the cold front will enhance more lift,-leading to more cloud cover and numerous showers around the region later this afternoon and evening. A widespread, heavy rainfall is not currently anticipated. But with the airmass becoming warmer and unstable, some showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours and frequent lightning are possible. The Storm Prediction Center even has marginal risk for isolated thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts for parts of West-Central NJ and Eastern PA. Stay tuned for updates on our social media accounts today. Premium members, check back for more updates on this system on the main dashboard today, as well. Skies will clear later tonight, as this system moves out of the region. Some other highlights for the next few days:

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Premium: November Outlook and pattern evolution

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The stratosphere, Pacific Jet, and a changing hemispheric pattern

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Premium Members gain access to all Premium blog posts, the Members Dashboard, Video posts, Live blogs, and more. Consulting and long range forecasting options are available. Head to our Premium Overview page and sign up today.

Have a question? Feel free to contact us directly via email. Our team will respond within 30 minutes.

How the North Pacific Ocean offers winter clues in November

With Autumn very obviously and officially underway (have you been outside this morning?), questions have begun to surface regarding the upcoming winter — and if the Autumn pattern will foreshadow it. Unfortunately, it isn’t quite as simple as “A cold October means a cold winter” or ” A warm November means a warm winter”. If that were the case, we’d have long range forecasting figured out by now, and there would be much less urgency to winter outlooks. Instead, meteorologists use “drivers”, analogs, teleconnections, and ensemble guidance to help with seasonal forecasts. When used together and properly weighted, these tools provide a higher probability of success in medium to long range forecasting. These methods are far from perfect, but can help offer us clues as to how the coming season will play out.

One major piece of the Winter’s puzzle can be found in the form of “clues” in the North Pacific Ocean. Meteorologists use different oscillations to measure the pattern in the North Pacific over time. The pattern in the Eastern Pacific Ocean is represented by the aptly named “East Pacific Oscillation” (EPO). Like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) the EPO has certain generally predictable outcomes when it oscillates from positive to negative phases.

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