John Homenuk

Premium: Active pattern to begin December, but uncertainties remain

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The hemispheric pattern will continue to undergo changes as the month of December approaches, and this comes as no surprise to those who have been following our long range forecasts for the past few weeks. The main changes in the pattern are unfolding throughout the Pacific Ocean, where a large vortex in the Gulf of Alaska is being gradually replaced by a propensity for ridging. This causes a domino effect downstream towards the United States.

However, questions still remain in regards to the results of this change in terms of sensible weather. The source of cold air, speed of the pattern, and strength of individual storm systems are the main concerns; most stemming from the uncertainties in regards to the pattern in the higher latitudes from Canada towards the North Pole.

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John Homenuk

Pattern in transition as December quickly approaches

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Over the past few weeks, much has been made in regards to a changing hemispheric pattern. Global circulations are in flux, and a much warmer than normal pattern has in fact changed across the Continental United States. However, the changes have been slightly less stout and slightly delayed when compared with initial ideas, and the atmospheric pattern has been left in an overall flux as we head towards December.

The Thanksgiving holiday is often an important time-frame in meteorology as one looks ahead to the upcoming winter. Gone are the days of wild speculation and assumption when it comes to the winter ahead. December is just a week away — and the ideas formulated regarding the pattern as we move into winters first month are beginning to obtain more weight. Some ideas are clearly losing steam, while others garner more attention.

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Doug Simonian

Premium: Snow Squalls Possible on Sunday

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Although we have generally been basked in a sea of warmth, we are getting to the time of year where snow becomes a more realistic possibility. A large storm system traversed the central part of the US, bringing blizzard conditions to the upper Plains and upper Midwest. While the pattern across most of North America has been pretty warm thanks to a raging Pacific Jet, this storm is powerful enough to tap into some cold air up north — while that air is not as cold as it “should” be this time of year, that air is still cold enough that if tapped into, could yield snow, if there is precipitation, of course.

Ahead of this storm, more warmth has moved into the Northeast, with high temperatures in the upper 60s today. A little bit more in the way of onshore flow is expected on Saturday, which may keep temperatures a tad cooler, but they still will be overall quite warm for this time of year — into the low to mid 60s. But part of this warmth stems from being ahead of a cold front, and once this cold front crosses, cold air advection will be taking place, but it will also be aided by a deepening secondary low pressure system, funneling in cold air from Canada and tapping into the aforementioned cold air.

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Miguel Pierre

Saturday Overview: Chilly Weather Today…Milder on Sunday

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A colder airmass settled over the region, as expected overnight and this morning. But this airmass will be already on it way out this afternoon, as the pattern remains quite progressive. After quite a cold start with most of the area dropping into the 30s and some upper 20s, temperatures will rise into the upper 40s or lower 50s with plenty of sunshine this afternoon. Which is still chilly and somewhat below normal for November 12th. Strong and large high pressure centered over Ohio Valley will keep skies free today of much cloud cover through tonight.

Mostly clear skies and light winds will lead to more radiational cooling tonight. Especially for the suburbs, where lows will bottom upper 20s to middle 30s. Closer to NYC and urban areas lows will be upper 30s to lower 40s. On Sunday, more southwest winds with high pressure shifting south of the region, will support warmer high temperatures in upper 50s to lower 60s during the afternoon. More sunshine and dry weather will dominate throughout the day.  It should feel more pleasant than today! Some more highlights for early next week:

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