John Homenuk

Long Range: Pacific Ocean, stratosphere hold the keys to the pattern

/by

The winter season, thus far has been characterized mainly by transition. No real consistency has developed in the weather pattern, both throughout the Pacific Ocean and the United States. Much of this can be attributed to tropical forcing and the state of the Pacific Ocean itself, which has remained largely in flux over the past several months. Every time it appears a pattern will settle in, some sort of retrograde or reversal occurs — before another train of disturbance arrives from the Western Pacific and changes things yet again.

Yet, here we are, more than halfway through the winter, at what seems to be a breaking point of sorts. The atmosphere, from the troposphere to the stratosphere, is about to undergo some significant changes, most of which will have a large impact on the weather we experience here across the lower 48. Much of this begins in the Pacific Ocean (Again) where the pattern is going to change once again — and ends in the stratosphere, where the large polar vortex is going to be significantly disrupted.

The sensible weather results throughout the lower 48 currently remain uncertain. But there are some clues to be found in the medium and long range forecast models. There are also clues to be found away from model guidance — not everything comes directly from them, after all. We can look to past events as well as basic synoptic meteorology to begin to understand how the pattern will evolve through February and beyond.

We break down what’s going on in our latest video:

Miguel Pierre

1/25/17 PM All Zones Update: Dry This Evening, Cold Front & Trough on Thursday

/by

After beautiful day with plenty of sunshine and temperatures reaching the upper 40’s and lower 50’s, more clouds will begin to return this evening.  These clouds will thicken overnight but remain dry much of the night. This is well ahead of a cold front and mid-level shortwave approaching the region. Moisture remains limited overall with the approaching system — and any spotty rain showers are expected to hold off until well after midnight.

Read more

John Homenuk

1/25 AM All Zones: Transitional pattern will continue

/by

A large Nor’Easter which impacted the area over the past few days has finally begun to pull northeastward this morning, bringing moisture and associated unsettled weather with it. This comes as welcomed news to many after nearly three days of unsettled weather including rain, wind, wintry precipitation and coastal flooding. Improved weather is expected today as skies clear and the sun shows its face once again.

Temperatures are likely to average several degrees above normal this afternoon. Despite northwest winds in the storms wake, a modified airmass with Pacific air still exists across both the United States and parts of Canada. So the air being transported into the region is still warmer than normal in nature and not of arctic origin. Temperatures this afternoon will rise into the upper 40’s throughout the area, and possibly even the lower 50’s in some spots.

Read more

John Homenuk

1/24 PM All Zones: Lingering rain, clearing late tonight

/by

As expected, showers and periodic steady rain lingered throughout much of the area today. This was most prevalent in Northeast NJ, NYC, Long Island and Connecticut, where the bands of rain pivoted westwards from the Western Atlantic Ocean inland. The potential for rain will continue for a few more hours, likely into the early evening, as the surface low pressure meanders offshore.

Much of the banding is being enhanced by frontogenesis, or lift, in the atmosphere’s mid levels. Mid level low centers are still only a few hundred miles off the coasts of New Jersey and New York, and lingering dynamics and moisture are juxtaposed to support bands of rain moving inland. Over time, these dynamics will wane, especially during the early to middle part of the evening.

Read more