John Homenuk

NYC Area Forecast: Improving weather after fourth March Nor’Easter

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Thursday’s Weather Rating | 3/10 (Poor)

Wow, take a deep breath!

The fourth Nor’Easter in just as many weeks has finally departed the area this morning (taking its time doing so, as well) with snow lingering across many areas through the morning. This has been especially true across Long Island and parts of Eastern New England. Some extremely heavy, record breaking snowfall totals occurred across parts of the region – most specifically in Eastern New Jersey and Long Island, with snowfall totals ranging from 12-18″ (some locally higher). Unofficially, Islip, NY broke the record for March snowfall, with 2018 now the snowiest there since records began in 1964 with 27.5″.

The storm system we experienced on Wednesday was, without a doubt, extremely anomalous for March. Not only was it our fourth Nor’easter this month, but is was cold. The boundary layer conditions (Where we live) were much more winter-like with this storm system as opposed to the heavy, wet snow with temperatures in the mid to upper 30’s during the others. This lead to more significant road/pavement accumulations in many areas.

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John Homenuk

Significant winter storm begins, widespread impacts likely

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Snowstorm Impact | 8/10 (Severe)

3:00pm Update: The winter storm is continuing to come together across the Northern Mid Atlantic. Snowfall rates have increased area-wide and will continue to become more steady, as banding in the storm system develops. The dynamic aspect of the system is still ongoing, transferring the coastal low that will become dominant. As this occurs, bands of heavier snow should pivot inland towards NJ, NYC, and Long Island.

So far, around 4.5″ of snow has fallen at Central Park, and a similar amount at Newark. Some areas are observing local differences, which is typical. But with heavier/steadier snow rates continuing and sunset approaching, we expect accumulations to become more widespread, even on roadways throughout the region. The latest radar shows the bands well, especially over Northern NJ and NYC over the past 30 minutes.

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Steven Copertino

Update: Significant winter storm expected through Thursday

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Expected Snowstorm Impact | 7/10 (Significant)

Quick Link: Storm Total Snowfall Forecast

Good morning!

There has been a rather substantial shift over the past 24 hours with regards to the potential waves of wintry weather that could impact portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast Tuesday through Wednesday night. Back on Friday, we highlighted the potential outcomes for this system as a whole, with the first option being that the system remains weak and the blocking (confluence) to the north remains too strong. For the entire weekend, the model guidance showed that this was likely going to be the outcome, with the bulk of the precipitation staying south of the Mason Dixon line. However, over the past few days,  the model guidance had shifted towards a much more impactful solution, with several of our more reliable models even bringing significant precipitation into the vicinity of the New York City area.

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John Homenuk

NYC Area Forecast: Another winter storm possible this week

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Monday’s Weather Rating: | 5/10 (Fair)

Good morning on this cool and wintry Monday. After a calm and benign weather weekend in the Northeast states, our full attention has turned to the potential for a winter weather event during the middle of the week ahead. This potential event has been spoken about for quite some time now, and the evolution has changed on forecast model guidance quite a bit over the last 48-60 hours. With all of that said, the potential for a storm of significance still exists.

The week is expected to start off quietly on both Monday and most of Tuesday. Transient clouds and very cold temperatures are expected. There’s no shorting this airmass – it’s extremely cold for this time of year, with temperatures several degrees below average for several days in a row. Temperature departures will exceed -10 F in many locations during this time frame. As our cold continues, a disturbance is organizing in the Central Plains and beginning its move eastward, setting the stage for a complex and convoluted storm evolution during the middle part of the week.

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