John Homenuk

NYC Area PM Update: Unsettled evening, shot of Autumn air awaits

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It’s been nice this week, with lower humidity and minimal rain chances since Monday – owing mostly to a high pressure that has filtered southward from New England. The reign of this lovely high pressure will end this afternoon (it has already ended, if you haven’t noticed the clouds) and another disturbance will approach the northeast states. A warm front is already moving northward from the Mid-Atlantic states as we speak — err, type.

Some of the thunderstorms developing near and along the warm front have been strong and severe this afternoon, acting upon weak to moderate atmospheric instability. This threat will continue for a few more hours into Southern New Jersey. We always advocate for being careful along warm fronts – they create extra low level shear in the atmosphere that can sporadically strengthen storms. So we will be watching!

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John Homenuk

NYC Area Forecast: Ridiculous dew points take a break (for now)

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For what feels like weeks on end, dew points have averaged well above normal and temperatures in the 80’s and 90’s have made the airmass feel oppressive in and around the NYC Metro Area. Such was the case again over the past few days, with warm and moist air in place over the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms were commonplace once again, with many areas receiving several inches of rainfall.

The weather pattern which brought us weeks of humid air looks likely to take a temporary hiatus this week – but it’s not going away for long. Although humidity levels will drop over the next few days, the pattern will remain transient, and there are already signs of the return of heat in 7 to 10 days time. Here’s how we expect things to shake down:

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John Homenuk

NYC Area Forecast: Strong storms possible later today

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In what seems to be becoming a bi-weekly occurrence, strong thunderstorms are again possible throughout the Northeast later today. In all seriousness, another frontal boundary approaches this part of the country today – the second this week to do so with some vigor. The airmass ahead of it is once again expected to be humid and unstable, and the lift associated with a pre-frontal disturbance will be significant enough to aid in thunderstorm development later today. SPC has placed parts of the Northeast in a Slight Risk for severe storms later today and tonight. 

As is often the case with thunderstorm events, the devil is in the details – and the details are uncertain. The latest observations this morning suggest that forecast models were a bit over-aggressive with their depiction of morning showers and thunderstorms across the Northeast. This is both good and bad news; it means a drier and more pleasant morning, but it allows the atmosphere to become more unstable later today.

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John Homenuk

NYC Forecast: After the heat, strong storms possible Friday

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Update [500pm]: The SPC has upgraded Friday’s severe weather threat to a Slight Risk (Level 2 on a scale of 5) in parts of New England including Northern NJ and Southeast NY. The main threats with severe storms will be lightning, gusty winds and heavy rain. We’ve got more below. Previous post follows:

Another day, another Heat Advisory! If it hasn’t been the heat lately, it has been flooding rains and lightning. So we’ll take the quiet, hot days while we can get them I suppose. Thursday will be another one of those, with temperatures into the 90’s during the afternoon hours and heat index values getting up there as well.

The NWS has issued another Heat Advisory through Thursday night (there have been a lot of those this summer), and an Air Quality Alert is also in effect. Translation: Take it easy out there. Limit outdoor exposure if you can, and be sure to remain hydrated if you’re outdoors for a prolonged period. As always, keep a close eye on children, the elderly, and pets.

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