Unfortunately, things haven’t changed much at all since our previous update. Conditions look to remain quite unsettled and dreary through Friday with periods of heavy rain likely. However, significant changes to our sensible weather may be in store for this weekend!
Multiple rounds of storms are possible today, particularly in Eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. The Storm Prediction Center has placed those regions in a Slight Risk for severe weather. Damaging wind gusts are expected to be the main threat with any storm, but hail and isolated tornadoes also cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain will also be a problem, with localized flooding expected. The threat for storms is being driven by the presence of a warm front, which is stalled near the area this morning. This front will serve as a focal point for storm development later today.
We’ve got some bad news for those of you searching for long, sunny summer days. An unsettled weather pattern looks likely to continue over the next week, characterized by frequent showers and thunderstorms. A warm front meandering near the area is the culprit in ensuring that the pattern remains less than ideal.
Opportunities for showers and storms will begin on Monday, with afternoon storms expected across Central and Southern New Jersey. While the worst of the storms will miss the NYC Metro Area to the south, showery and cloudy activity is still expected.
Meanwhile, further south, a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms is expected near a warm front. The Storm Prediction Center has, accordingly, placed parts of the Mid Atlantic in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. The main threat with this activity on Monday afternoon will be strong wind gusts.
Even after storms pass through the area on Monday, additional rounds are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday, in particular, looks to feature mostly showery activity. Our area will be on the “wrong” side of the warm front. In other words, it won’t be warm, but there will be enough lift for precipitation.
Showers and storms are (surprise!) again possible on Wednesday afternoon and evening with another disturbance approaching the area. The main show, however, looks likely to come on Thursday when a more notable storm system approaches New England from the west/southwest.
It remains to be seen exactly how much instability will develop throughout the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. This will be a major factor in determining how impactful thunderstorms might be. The Storm Prediction Center has mentioned the region in their extended outlook:
Some severe risk should exist across parts of the southeast into the oh/tn valleys, mid atlantic, and perhaps the northeast on day 4/thursday as an anomalously amplified upper trough continues eastward over these regions. Instability is not currently forecast to be as strong thursday afternoon ahead of an eastward-moving cold front, owing mainly to a lack of steep mid-level lapse rates. However, strengthening mid-level flow suggests a potential for organized severe thunderstorms. A 15% severe area may eventually be introduced on day 4/thursday for some portion of these regions.
Storm Prediction Center
As we move closer to the end of the week, confidence will increase in regards to the factors that may contribute to the threat for strong and severe thunderstorms. Until then, we can proceed with the knowledge that unsettled weather will continue through the week.
The light at the end of the tunnel looks to become a bit brighter as we move toward the weekend, with some signs that high pressure will build in for a few days. This could result in a much needed stretch of dry and pleasant weather during the weekend ahead.
Here’s hoping.
Thankfully, conditions have improved quite dramatically today over the entire NYC metro area! Relatively calm conditions are likely through the first half of the weekend before conditions turn muggy & potentially stormy by Sunday!