A broad storm system will develop in the Great Lakes through Thursday, bringing an increasing chance of rain to the Northeast states. In addition to the potential for heavy rainfall, locally strong wind gusts are possible on Thursday evening and early Friday morning.
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This is a crazy time of year for meteorologists. After a few months of relatively calm and simple weather, things take a complicated turn in Autumn. Storms get stronger, the jet stream gets wilder, and hours get longer. These few weeks in particular are some of the craziest, as we finalize our Winter Forecast and start to look ahead to the next few months.
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A strong coastal storm will develop later today and tonight, and heavy rainfall is expected throughout the NYC Metro Area. The heavy rainfall will cause travel delays and will result in a slower than usual PM Commute. It is also likely to heavily impact ALCS Game 4, which we are projecting to be rained out.
The storm system is developing as a result of a phase in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Two disturbances will interact over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states later today, aiding in the development of a strong surface low pressure area. Impressive jet stream dynamics in the atmosphere will support the storm strengthening quickly tonight.
Heavy rainfall is likely to develop from late this morning into the early afternoon across much of Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Much like a winter storm, this precipitation will spread gradually northward towards New York City during the afternoon hours.
The current expectation is that steady rainfall will have started in the NYC Metro Area by 4:00pm, increasing in intensity by 5:00pm. The rainfall will gradually become heavier in the hour or two that follows. With rainfall intensity picking up, localized flooding is possible throughout the area. This will be especially true during the second half of the evening commute.
The heaviest rainfall and most impressive dynamics will arrive in the NYC Metro Area between 7:00pm and 9:00pm. During this time, torrential rainfall is likely. Southeast winds will increase and gust over 30mph at times. Localized flooding is again likely, especially in poor drainage areas and near the coast.
As we move closer to 10:00pm, rainfall rates will begin to dissipate from southwest to northeast as a dry slot approaches the area. Rainfall is expected to slow considerably as we approach midnight. Gusty winds will continue, and turn northwesterly as the storm strengthens to our north.
If there is one bit of good news, it’s that this system will be in and out of the area in just several hours. While the storm system is strong, it’s undergoing the most strengthening to our north over New England. As a result, we won’t have to deal with multiple days of rainfall.
There have been minimal changes to our SportsCast forecast for ALCS Game 4 in the Bronx tonight. We are still forecasting a 95% chance of a delay or cancellation, with torrential rainfall and gusty winds likely before and during the games scheduled start time.
The 5% we left out of the forecast for a delay accounts for the possibility that MLB will choose to “wait out” the storm and play the game later than its scheduled time tonight. We are of the opinion that this would be an exceptionally poor decision – with soggy conditions on the field and localized flooding/travel issues for fans after 3″ of rainfall – but we did account for it in our projection.
Otherwise, we are operating under the full expectation that tonight’s game will not be played. It is worth noting, too, that strong northwesterly winds are expected on Thursday. This means the wind will be blowing out to right field at Yankee Stadium – which as we all know is something to note.
Stay tuned for further updates throughout the day on the developing storm system
The fall foliage display is becoming increasingly noticeable throughout New England, and peak colors are expected within the next 7 to 10 days. While the outburst of beautiful color is on schedule historically, it’s moving along at a much faster pace than it did in 2018.
Want to learn more about foliage? Read our article here
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