John Homenuk

Winter Forecast 2018-2019

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Seasonal weather forecasting, especially when it comes to Winter, is one of the most challenging aspects of meteorology. It isn’t simply a guesstimate or an educated gamble. It is instead the product of months of research which typically begins several months prior. We’ve been piecing together ideas for this upcoming winter since Spring, and we’re excited to present our findings to you. In that respect, we are hopeful to break down the components of the forecast for you.

Instead of focusing on individual numerical indexes and values, we are going to try to paint a picture of the atmosphere and what it will be doing over the next few months – based on several global and hemispheric oscillations, conditions, and phenomena. This will lead us to the conclusions which we believe will be the guiding forces for us during the seasons ahead.

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John Homenuk

Winter Forecast 2017-2018

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Seasonal forecasting is quite the challenge, but one we always look forward to. It seems every year we learn something new about the atmosphere. It is critical to have a fundamental understanding of how the atmosphere works, and the implications that changes from its base state can have on the weather pattern.

Instead of focusing on individual numerical indexes and their verbatim values, we are going to try to paint a picture of the atmosphere and what it will be doing over the next few months based on these phenomena:

  1. ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and tropical forcing
  2. High latitude behavior and blocking
  3. Analog years based on global pattern evolution

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Miguel Pierre

What the QBO and the sun can tell us about the winter ahead

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Take a deep breath — sit back, and relax. You are about to read our first post detailing some early thoughts for the Winter of 2017-2018. August is a bit of an odd time for it, we know. Not every year offers the opportunity to discuss the road to the winter ahead during the month of August. Some years require patience until September or October before we can start discussing early signals with confidence. This year, however, we’re seeing important signs for the cold season already as we speak.

This afternoon, we’re going to take a very early look at some of the significant changes that have occurred all around us since the end of last winter. It’s true — in the time between the day the last snowflake fell in the Northeast states and today, there have been significant changes throughout the atmosphere, in the oceans, and even in the patterns of energy emanating from the sun. All of these things will impact the winter ahead — so lets dive in to what we’re observing so far.

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John Homenuk

Winter Forecast 2016-2017

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Seasonal forecasting is one of the most misunderstood aspects of meteorology. Not only is it a difficult task for the meteorologists themselves, but it is often difficult for readers and public viewers to understand the nature of the forecast. The root of the problem lies in the fact that seasonal forecasting is based on many different methods — all of which have tremendous variability and low percentage verification. Seasonal forecasting begins with an analysis of current conditions and atmospheric circulations, similar to any daily forecast. Beyond this point, forecasters use variables such as sea surface temperature anomalies, analogs, and comparative methodology to compile a forecast.

Some forecasters have detailed the mentality very well when they have stated that long term forecasting is very much about “What can go wrong” as opposed to “How will the forecast be correct”. Our job as meteorologists is to detail the aspects that have formed the foundation for our forecast, express our concerns and confidence in all aspects, and deliver the ideas which we have formulated as a result of our research and work in attempting to understand the patterns evolution over the next several months.

We will begin by highlighting several variables which we have researched. Each variable will be listed with a conclusion and prediction on its state during the winter, as well as the methodology and reasoning behind that forecast.

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