John Homenuk

Severe weather outbreak possible in the Midwest today

/1 Comment/by

Severe weather season is kicking up, and today could feature a dangerous outbreak of storms over the Midwest and North/Eastern Plains states toward parts of the Mississippi River Valley. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a large “Moderate Risk” for severe thunderstorms in those areas, the second highest risk category they use (only High Risk denotes a greater potential), with the potential for widespread damaging wind gusts and strong tornadoes.

A large high pressure ridge, currently situated over the Central United States, is slowly shifting eastward. But, more notably, the high pressure dome is serving as a highway for severe thunderstorm formation on its northern edge. Along the periphery of the ridge, atmospheric disturbances have been sliding east and then southeast from the Northern Plains into the Mississippi Valley. These disturbances are acting to force thunderstorm development within an incredibly unstable and supportive environment for severe thunderstorms.

Read more

John Homenuk

TS Claudette forms, expected to head seaward

/by

Tropical Storm Claudette formed this afternoon, amid a noticeably quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season, to the south of Nantucket. Claudette had been monitored by the National Hurricane Center for the past several days as a potential disturbance, and today it obtained the tropical characteristics necessary to be classified as a Tropical Storm with maximum sustained winds over 45miles per horu.

The Tropical Storm won’t be a threat to any United States shores, however. A developing mid level atmospheric trough will act to steer the system seaward over the next 12 to 24 hours. At the same time, atmospheric shear will increase and the system will head toward cooler ocean waters. Subsequently, weakening is anticipated as Claudette moves northeast in the next 24 hours.

Read more

John Homenuk

Morning Roundup: Changeable weather returns

/by

The weekend hangover is real. Monday morning brings change to a weekend which featured a stretch of incredible summer weather. Highs topped out in the mid to upper 80’s each day, with an offshore flow and only some high clouds at times. The sun was shining for the majority of the time — with Saturday and Sunday both turning out to be winners. Monday, still, will remain generally pleasant. A few showers and storms may pop up late, but we aren’t expecting any threat for organized storms. The same can’t be said for the middle of the week, beginning on Tuesday. A deepening trough in the mid levels of the atmosphere will bring more moisture, the return of an onshore flow with clouds, and chances for showers and storms for the next few days. Some highlights from around the meteorological community are included below:

  • Pleasant and warm conditions will continue today, especially during the first half of the day. Highs in the 80’s are expected again and, initially, offshore winds will keep the weather pleasant. During the second half of the day, increasing clouds will be a harbinger of unsettled weather — with showers and storms possible.
  • A severe weather outbreak is possible today across the Central Mississippi Valley. A very impressive complex of thunderstorms broke out overnight with widespread severe winds, and moved through Chicago this morning. The storms will drop southeast and strengthen again today. These are forming along the northern edge of a heat ridge over the Central Plains.
  • An onshore flow will develop Monday Night with a changing wind direction. Increased moisture and cloud cover will move inland from the area waters. Temperatures, as a result, will be a bit cooler during the middle part of this week.
  • A coastal system may develop during the middle part of the week as a deepening trough moves into the Northeast US. Showers, clouds and storms will remain possible until the system departs later in the week.
John Homenuk

Morning Roundup: Beautiful weather weekend is here

/by

It’s been a while since we’ve been able to safely say that a weekend of straight-up beautiful weather is on the way. Thanks to a post-frontal airmass characterized by relatively warm air and favorable wind direction, this weekend will be a winner. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80’s with plentiful sun and a light breeze are the highlights to dwell on this weekend. Water temperatures at the area shores are finally warming up a bit, too, so heading down to the beach this weekend is highly recommended. Perhaps the most notable of weather changes will be the lack of showers and storms, due to decreased atmospheric moisture. I think we all will enjoy the break after an unsettled week! Here are some weekend highlights:

  • Beautiful weather on both Saturday an Sunday, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80’s and plenty of sun. Maybe some high clouds on Saturday morning, especially farther south as s coastal system skirts by. Comfortable winds — including an offshore flow — will keep any disruptive seabreeze or thunderstorm development at bay (no pun intended, we promise).
  • Rip currents and seabreezes, as mentioned above, will be a lower than normal risk. The onshore flow helps to keep these calmer than usual. Sunday, we could see a slightly more prominent current along the shores as the wind direction will start to shift.
  • Unsettled weather will, unfortunately, return for Monday. Winds turn south and then southeasterly, with showers and clouds returning by the second half of the day. It looks like the week ahead will be unsettled, too. But lets not dwell on it for now.