Doug Simonian

Cooldown tomorrow, warm weekend

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After a powerful storm moved through the region yesterday, cool, but not cold air moved in behind it, as temperatures dropped back into the 40s for highs today. The weather looks to generally be pleasant, but some leftover shortwave energy behind the storm will trigger enough lift to keep skies mostly cloudy for most of the day.

This shortwave energy has triggered a weak cold front, which will move through the area tonight. This is when a brief return to “winter” will truly be felt, as temperatures will drop back into the 20s tonight. Lift in the atmosphere will have a lid, thus clouds should clear.

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John Homenuk

(Premium) Winter storm threat next week

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Forecast models continue to show a classic pattern progression across the Northern Hemisphere over the next several days, with a continuation of a wave progression that favors the development of a Western USA ridge and Eastern USA trough by the beginning of next week. The redevelopment of this large ridge in the Western USA, extending northward into British Columbia, is expected to be the focal point for the potential development of a storm system in the Eastern USA between February 24th and 28th.

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Miguel Pierre

Large, Complex Storm Shaping up for Monday and Tuesday

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After bitter and record-breaking cold this weekend, attention turns to another storm for tomorrow. This will be a large, complex storm system that will impact the region starting at around Noon. Low pressure will organize over the Southeast United States on Monday, as high pressure slides out to sea. This combination will push a warm front northward through the Mid-Atlantic region during the day tomorrow. Light snow is likely to spread from southwest to northeast during the afternoon hours.

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Doug Simonian

(Premium) Comparing This Arctic Blast to 2014 and 2015

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The big debate among weather enthusiasts and meteorologists alike is whether NYC (Central Park) will hit zero or below tonight. This has not happened since 1994, and common opinion is that climate change along with the Urban Heat Island Effect would prevent NYC from ever going below zero again. While that thought process is not necessarily without merit, tonight is definitely the best shot NYC has had to go zero or below since 1994 — and perhaps should be even colder than the Arctic outbreaks from the past two seasons.

On February 20th, 2015, NYC got down to +2F, and on January 7th, 2014, NYC got down to +4F. There are certain criteria we look for to see how cold it can get in NYC: 1) 850mb temperatures, as they are a good indicator of the airmass, 2) Timing and degree of cold air advection — NYC due to the Urban Heat Island Effect does not cool off very much from radiational cooling, so they are very reliant on cold air advection, 3) Wind direction — generally a more northerly flow can more efficiently draw trapped colder surface air from the valleys, whereas a more westerly component has the tendency to downslope off the Appalachians and thus moderate somewhat when it hits us, and 4) Degree of mixing — if the surface air “mixes” with the airmass aloft, not as much cold air will be trapped at the surface, making it hard to truly go below zero.

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