John Homenuk

Strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon

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1:00pm Update: The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Northern New Jersey and Southeast New York until 8:00pm tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the next few hours and shift southeastward through New Jersey and New York. The combination of developing instability, a nearby frontal zone, and a disturbance aloft will aid in organization of storms. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, hail, and strong winds.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch graphic from the Storm Prediction Center. Blue highlighted counties are included in the watch.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch graphic from the Storm Prediction Center. Blue highlighted counties are included in the watch.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the area in a Slight Risk for severe weather on Thursday, including much nearly all of New Jersey. The Slight Risk area runs to about New York City and Western Long Island northward through Southeast New York and near the Connecticut border. A Slight Risk is issued by the Storm Prediction Center when organized severe thunderstorms are possible, in this case there is a 15 percent chance of gusty winds or hail within 25 miles of any point within the Slight Risk area.

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John Homenuk

Thunderstorms with gusty winds, downpours Thursday

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Update: The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms today (Thursday). Stay tuned for further updates and information including a live blog post.

As a mid level disturbance moves toward the area on Thursday, a frontal boundary and convergence zone will shift near the area during the late morning to afternoon hours. The combination of the two, when juxtaposed with daytime heating and some instability, will lead to sufficient lift to develop thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the area in a “Slight Risk” for severe thunderstorms.

The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms is likely to be focused west of the area beaches and shores, but heavy downpours and thunderstorms are still possible there. Farther west, over the interior parts of New Jersey and New York, more focused instability and southerly winds are more likely to work with marginally favorable wind fields to help develop thunderstorms. These storms will be capable of producing very heavy rain, frequent lightning and possibly even some small hail and gusty winds.

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John Homenuk

Incredible photos of hail accumulation from Colorado supercell

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A large supercell, which formed and moved near Denver eastward past Aurora earlier on Wednesday, produced tremendous amounts of hail which accumulated in many areas. The storm also produced a lowering wall cloud, which was observed by many storm chasers, and a possible tornado touchdown east of Denver. The variety of pictures received via social media showed the accumulating hail (a relatively rare occurrence, but more common out west due to colder air aloft) for the second straight day in Colorado. 5″ (yes, 5 inches) of hail fell in parts of Denver.

The maturing supercell also tracked nearly directly over the radar site at KFTG and the Terminal Doppler radar site at TDEN. The “shadowing” effect and the black hole/circle in the middle of the storm is a phenomenon not too often observed. When heavier precipitation moves directly over a radar site, the radar beam cannot register precipitation which is immediately near it’s location. In essence, the precipitation is falling below the radar beams, which shoot outward and upward from the radar site.

Featured image courtesy Mike Oblinsky (Twitter).

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Doug Simonian

Beautiful this afternoon, thunderstorms midweek, delightful Memorial Day weekend

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This afternoon and tonight: The large upper level cold pool which triggered clouds on Sunday and Monday afternoons has scooted out to sea, allowing a ridge to build in. This has resulted in warmer temperatures, and will also preclude any significant cloud formation. The rest of this afternoon looks great, with temperatures in the upper 70s and sunny skies. Continued downsloping westerly and northwesterly winds will prevent any seabreeze from forming, so an evening trip to the beach should be a great idea. There will be a few moderate breezes from time-to-time, but nothing that would ruin going outdoors or going for a walk on a beach boardwalk.

Moving forward to tonight is when the weather will start to change, as a shortwave and area of vorticity will be running along the top of the ridge and head towards us from the north and west. This will allow for an increase in clouds tonight, keeping our low temperatures a bit warmer — generally in the upper 50s. Any rain, however, should hold off until tomorrow, and perhaps even as late as tomorrow afternoon.  Read more