NYC Area Forecast: First winter storm threat of the season late week

Briefing: A winter storm threat will evolve late this week, with the potential for snow in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Some snow is possible in NYC, but accumulating snow is much more likely in the interior.

A unique and unusual synoptic weather pattern will evolve this week leading to the potential for the seasons first winter storm, especially in the Interior parts of the Northeast. Even in the immediate suburbs of NYC, a few inches of snow may accumulate on Thursday on the front end of the storm system.

The storm system begins to evolve from Tuesday into Wednesday, as a cutoff low moves from the Mississippi River Valley towards the Mid-Atlantic states. Meanwhile, a deep trough in Southeastern Canada will reinforce cold air over New England. Very low dew points will sink southward into New England as a result – and this cold antecedent airmass will be a key to the forecast on Thursday.

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NYC Area Forecast: Heavy rain this evening, better weekend ahead

Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly prevalent throughout the area this afternoon, culminating in a threat of heavy rain throughout the area tonight. This will lead to localized flooding, and torrential rain may continue until the late evening or even midnight in many areas. The rain wraps up gradually later this evening with improving conditions expected on Saturday.

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NYC Area Forecast: Calm for now, heavy rain likely again Friday

Calm, pleasant, and warmer than normal weather is expected to persist for another day or two across the Northeast states. It comes as a welcomed relief to an active and soggy weather pattern that has plagued the Eastern United States as a whole over the past few weeks. The reprieve also won’t last long, as another storm system is expected to approach on Friday. This one will feature relatively impressive dynamics, and so the potential for heavy rain will exist (again) on Friday.

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NYC Area Forecast: Strong storms possible in Mid Atlantic today

A strong cold front will approach the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states today, and the development of showers and thunderstorms, some strong, is expected near and ahead of the frontal boundary this afternoon. The strongest storms are likely to stay further south across the Mid-Atlantic states, where greater atmospheric instability exists. Nevertheless, strong wind shear aloft could promote strong wind gusts with any storms that do develop.

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